The Beauty of Surprise
Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) is all about surprise. In
most sports, records or rankings typically dictate the outcome of an event, but
MMA can change in the blink of an eye–one punch, one submission, one lack of
focus. Yearly, fans get treated to a few of these underdog stories, creating
new narratives, altering divisions, and making headlines. Finding the next
major upset is not a wild swing; it is reading the momentum, style, and
psychology of the sport's most intriguing matchups. The end of 2025 is quickly
approaching, and multiple matchups are brewing that could easily deliver a new
upset across the MMA world.
Why The Upset Is Important in MMA
Upsets are the lifeblood of MMA. They keep the sport
exciting and force evolution while confirming that anything can, and will,
happen when the cage door closes behind them. When Holly Holm knocked Ronda
Rousey out in 2015, or when Matt Serra beat Georges St-Pierre in 2007, they won
fights–they changed history. Not only does this highlight that no champion, no
matter hype or ranking, is invincible, but it also shows that skill, timing,
and belief can defeat anything. The perception of whether or not the upset will
occur keeps both fighters and fans engaged and invested in the sport, since MMA
will never be boring.
Most Upsets Have Similar Key Ingredients
Most upsets contain similar key ingredients. First,
we have stylistic mismatches, which are when an underdog’s strengths counter a favourite’s
habits. Secondly, we have mental overconfidence on the part of top-ranked
fighters, who can sometimes lose sight of a lesser-known challenger. And
lastly, we have timing, in which a fighter on the way up in the sport catches a
veteran just at the tail end of their peak. Being aware of these outcomes can
help point to a spot where the next upset may take place. Not every upset is
some sort of coincidence, but rather often brings a perfect storm of
preparation meeting up with opportunity.
Featherweight Division: A Perfect Storm
Coming Into Form
The featherweight division has historically been the
most competitive in MMA, and as 2025 continues to unfold, a few dark horses are
including themselves in the conversation. Diego Lopes, who has a predilection
for aggressive grappling and fearless striking, has slowly been working his way
up the ranks of the division. Should he get the opportunity for a top-five name
encounter with Alexander Volkanovski or Ilia Topuria -- who is another rising
star of the division -- Lopes could cause an upset. Lopes' transition submissions
and willingness to enter into a chaotic fight could lead to gaps in the elite
opponent's defence. Lopes' fight IQ, added to a fearless mindset, is someone to
keep tabs on.
Middleweight Division: A Dangerous
Challenger Incoming
One of the most interesting fighters in the middleweight
ranks is Caio Borralho. His mix of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and crisp
counterstriking makes him a stylistic nightmare for conventional strikers. If
he fought someone like Sean Strickland or Robert Whittaker, people could expect
an upset. Borralho's patience, cage control, and ability to transition
seamlessly between striking and takedowns make him the kind of fighter who can
slow down aggressive fighters. Given the right opponent and the right timing,
Caio Borralho could be one of the biggest upsets of 2025.
Heavyweight Division: The Wildcard
Element
Heavyweights are always one punch away from changing
the entire division. Whether it is rising prospects like Jailton Almeida or Tom
Aspinall, both could run into someone unranked and dangerous who has been
waiting for the opportunity to make a name for themselves. Jailton Almeida vs.
UFC newcomer Valter Walker – who recently gained attention for his heel-hook
submission at UFC 321 – would definitely turn some heads. Walker's
unpredictability, size, and submission creativity could confuse Almeida, who is
known for positional control but not knock-out defence. If this fight materialises,
there is no doubt that this could yield favourable odds for upsets.
Women's Divisions: New Faces, Different
Threats
In the women's division, the flyweight weight class
is about to undergo a shake-up. Erin Blanchfield has risen quickly, but speedy,
technical threats like Natalia Silva or Karine Silva have enough creativity in
their game to spoil the party. Natalia, in particular, possesses dynamic
striking and movement that could frustrate Blanchfield's grappling focus.
Amanda Ribas also presents an upset opportunity in the strawweight division —
her striking has improved, and she's shown durability against power strikers.
The women’s roster is evolving quickly, and the underdogs are catching up
faster than ever before.
Lightweight Division: Where Chaos
Happens
The lightweight division has historically produced
the most shocking results. With Islam Makhachev as the commanding champion and
with other top names, it's easy to forget about some disrupted types of
fighters coming into the division. Fighters like Grant Dawson and Benoît Saint
Denis have the kink of determination and pressure to make life difficult for
higher-ranked foes. If Saint Denis were to fight Makhachev or Poirier, his
relentless pace and cardio would certainly produce chaos. The lightweight
division is very deep, and a small lapse in focus can end a fight quickly;
therefore, it presents the most opportunity for the future.
Factors to Consider in 2025 Matchups
When predicting the next significant upset, it's also
about tracking the intangible factors: weight cuts, injuries, travel, and
emotional states. Fighters taking fights with short notice, coming off long
layoffs, and fighters not taking their opponents seriously are good candidates
for unexpected losses. On the flip side, underdogs training with nothing to
lose – fighters coming into the cage as true outsiders – tend to put themselves
in danger and perform freely and aggressively. With significant cards in Abu
Dhabi, Las Vegas, and Rio increasingly likely, all sorts of tangibles may clearly
impact one way or another.
The Next Wave of Chaos
The next major upset in MMA isn't a question of if,
but when. Every division is filled with a qualified contender waiting to catch
their opponent sleeping. Fighters like Diego Lopes, Caio Borralho, and Natalia
Silva are potential disruptors of the game going forward. For fans,
unpredictability is part of the magic in MMA, and knowing the underdog can win
at a moment's notice defies logic, probability, and history. As the fight
calendar of 2025 unravels, keep an eye on hungry, yet underrated fighters.
Because somewhere, someone is about to shock the world, and long live MMA.